When Tim asked me whether can i lead or start a revolution, i really wanted to say YES, but finally my answer was NO. Then i started thinking about why i could not start a revolution to fight against the unfair and illegality in the society, is that because i don’t have such ability? is that because the society i lived in was too good to fight? or is that because i am too naive and too young? Finally, after i watched the interview of Wael Ghonim, i knew the reason i afraid to fight is because i have too much things to lose.

     When a revolution started, no matter it succeed or not, it will cost something. Sometimes the cost is insignificant but sometimes the cost will be unacceptable, which finally will fail the revolution. During the Revolution 2.0, Wael was afraid when he was caught by the government and even he had already got the idea that by leading the revolution, he would face some costs, in his deeply mind, he still did not really pre

pare for those lost. However after he went out from prison, learned that people caught, hurt  and even died from the protest, he knew the cost of this revolution will be huge. At that time, he was really prepare for Revolution 2.0. Because he knew w

hat he gonna lose, he could “abandon” these things, which might stop him from moving forward, and even ready to die for the Revolution. During this movement, he was undefeatable as no one could defeat a person that are ready to lose every thing. As a result, his revolution succeed.  Compared to Wael’s revolution, the HK student protest will finally fail,(the protest still processing, but i think it will fail soon) as when the student start the protest, they never think about whether c

an the hk accept the cost brought by their protest, they never think about the cost of the hk local people, and they never think about the cost for themselves. They group together by their desire and proposal, they undoubtedly ready to endure the cost, however, they fail to really estimate the actual cost that lead by the protest. The HK protest will finally fail as they have to much to lose.

In economics and decision theory, loss aversion refers to people’s tendency to strongly prefer avoiding losses to acquiring gains. Most studies suggest that losses are twice as powerful, psychologically, as gains.

Loss aversion,demonstrated by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman.


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